Macro Briefing: 31 May 2024

* Opec set to meet amid cartel’s limited influence on oil market
* Senate Democrats call for Big-Oil probe over price fixing
* AI-related data centers may use 9% of US electric supply by 2030, study finds
* Pending home sales in US slump to lowest level since pandemic’s start
* US jobless claims edged up last week but remain low
* US Q1 GDP growth revised down a sluggish 1.3%:

The US equity market’s implied real (inflation-adjusted) excess return forecast relative to bonds for the decade ahead is near the lowest level in over seven decades, based on analysis by TMC Research, a new division of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth management firm. Using data published by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, a regression model that compares the real excess CAPE yield against the real excess 10-year S&P 500 return suggests that the US stock market will earn a relatively modest premium over its equivalent for US bonds in the decade ahead. The report is authored by the editor of

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