Macro Briefing: 4 January 2023

* House adjourns without picking a speaker, marking chaotic opening
* New Covid-19 variant has ‘alarming’ immunity evasion, experts advise
* US Treasury yields fall as demand for safe-haven bonds rebound
* Natural gas prices decline amid forecasts of warmer weather
* UK expected to suffer deepest recession in 2023 among G-10 nations
* Global mfg downturn continues in December, based on PMI survey data
* Eurozone recession eases and inflation cools in December via PMI survey data
* US manufacturing recession deepens in December via PMI survey data:

Gold rises to six-month high. “In general, we are looking for a price friendly 2023 supported by recession and stock market valuation risks — an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by year-end — all adding support,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.