Macro Briefing: 4 November 2022

* North Korea’s provocative run of missile launches continues
* Netanyahu set for return as prime minister of Israel
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in China visit, calls for economic ties ‘as equals’
* US holiday sales expected to rise 6% to 8%, according to an industry forecast
* US factory orders post moderate gain in September
* US jobless claims remain low, highlighting tight labor market
* Services sector contraction in US deepens in October via PMI survey
* US services sector growth slows in October to softest pace in 2-1/2 years:

US business activity continues to contract in October, according to PMI survey data. The US Composite PMI Output Index, a proxy for GDP, fell to 48.2 last month, down from 49.5 in September, advises S&P Global. “The fall in business activity was driven by a sharper decline in service sector output, but only modest overall as manufacturing output rose marginally. Driving the decrease in activity was a renewed drop in new business during October. The fall in client demand was broad based, as manufacturers and service providers noted contractions. Dollar strength and inflation weighed on new export orders which fell further.”

Eurozone output in October falls at sharpest rate in nearly two years, according to PMI survey data. “The eurozone economy registered its fourth successive month-on-month contraction in private sector business activity at the start of the fourth quarter,” S&P Global reports. “The rate of decline was the sharpest since November 2020 and, excluding those months affected by pandemic restrictions, marked the deepest downturn since the first half of 2013.”