Macro Briefing: 6 January 2023

* House remains paralyzed as McCarthy fails to win vote for 3rd day
* Ukraine dismisses Putin’s Russian Orthodox Christmas truce
* Global economic activity continues to contract in December via PMI survey data
* US trade deficit narrows sharply on cooler global demand
* Eurozone inflation eases as prices for energy retreat
* US jobless claims fall to four-month low
* US hiring by companies rebounds in December via ADP estimate:

A soft landing for US economy is possible, but it could be a bumpy ride. “The possibility of getting a soft landing is greater than the market believes,” says Jason Draho, head of Americas asset allocation for UBS Global Wealth Management. “Inflation has now come down faster than some recently expected, and the labor market has held up better than expected.” But JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli is downplaying the odds for a soft landing. “I don’t think it’s going to be a very happy year,” he says. “We are expecting the economy to slip into recession by the end of the year, just due to the lag effect of the tightening in financial conditions that the Fed has engineered here as well as the additional rate hikes they’re signaling.”