Macro Briefing: 7 October 2022

* Biden: risk of nuclear war highest since 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
* IMF chief warns of rising recession risk for global economy
* Fed officials continue to push for higher interest rates
* Debt crisis may be brewing for developing nations
* US economy may be “rolling over,” writes economist Paul Krugman
* World currency reserves falling at fastest rate on record
* A new Covid surge may be approaching
* US jobless claims rise to 5-week high but remain historically low:

The biggest macro risk is now recession, not inflation, says Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “They should have started tightening much, much much earlier,” he tells CNBC. “But now I fear that they’re slamming on the brakes way too hard.” He adds: “If they stay as tight as they say they will, continuing to hike rates through even the early part of next year, the risks of recession are extremely high,”

Periods of peak inflation can be a good time to buy stocks, says Paulsen, an investment strategist at Leuthold, a market research group. “If you buy at the peak, you do pretty darn well over the next 12 months,” he explains via