Macro Briefing: 8 December 2022

* Will China’s easing of zero-Covid rules boost its economy?
* The threat of soaring infections lurks as China eases zero-Covid rules
* Chinese exports slide at steepest rate in more than two years
* Attacks on US electricity grid are rising
* German police arrest 25 suspects in plot to overthrow government
* US housing market is in recession, according to market data
* US home prices set to fall in 2023–first annual drop in a decade, Redfin predicts
* US consumer credit continues rising at solid pace in October
* Stocks tend to rise after the end of Fed rate-hiking cycles:

US gasoline price falls to one-year low. “It’s good for households and it’s good for affordability,” says Beth Ann Bovino, US chief economist at S&P Global. “But at the same time the easing up of pricing pressure at the gas pump leaves more money to spend elsewhere, that might give a near-term boost to inflation, which the Fed would have to fight.”

‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini expects US stocks will continue to slide as a recession outlook weighs on the market. “In a short and shallow recession, typically, from peak to trough the S&P 500 falls by 30%,” he says. “So even if we have a mild recession…you’ll have another 15% leg down,” advises professor emeritus at New York University’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates.

China’s President Xi Jinping is visiting Saudi Arabia this week and it’s all about oil. “Energy cooperation will be at the center of all discussions between the Saudi-Chinese leadership,” says Ayham Kamel, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East and North Africa research team. “There is great recognition of the need to build a framework to ensure that this interdependence is accommodated politically, especially given the scope of energy transition in the West.”