Macro Briefing: 9 January 2024

* Deal to avert US government shutdown faces precarious path
* Investors warn governments about high levels of public debt
* China is now world’s top exporter, thanks to surging sales to Russia
* US small business owners remain “very pessimistic about economic prospects”
* Labor market will be “first and most important clue” for Fed’s next move
* US consumer credit surged in November–biggest rise since March 2022:

Global economy moving into a new “super cycle” driven by artificial intelligence and decarbonization, predicts Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs. CNBC reports that “Super cycles are commonly defined as lengthy periods of economic expansion, often accompanied by growing GDP, strong demand for goods leading to higher prices and high levels of employment.” Oppenheimer advises: “We’re not likely to see interest rates trending down as aggressively over the next decade or so, we’re seeing some pushback to globalization and, of course, we’re seeing increased geopolitical tensions as well.”

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