Monitoring Political Risk (Quickly While Avoiding Brain Damage)

What are the economic stakes tied to the outcome of this November’s US Presidential election? Minds will differ, but surely the answer is somewhere north of zero. Unfortunately, monitoring the political factor in real time can be a messy and mind-numbing affair, thanks to a sea of commentary and reportage—most of which is little more than guesses and intuition repackaged as serious analysis. But if you’d like to cut through the noise and focus on the numbers to develop a relatively objective assessment of how the political winds are trending, The Capital Spectator recommends the following two-step daily regimen that takes all of 60 seconds.

Start with, which aggregates the major polling data and breaks down the numbers into several categories, including state and national averages and by political party. You can find the latest updates each day on the home page in the upper right-hand corner.

Next, hop over to, which publishes daily updates of its primary forecasts via a robust modeling framework that, so far, has been a reliable forecasting tool. You can find the latest numbers for upcoming primaries—for each state—here.

At the moment, the political winds continue to favor a Trump-v.-Clinton race this fall. The probabilities could change, of course. If so, you can stay ahead of the crowd by regularly checking the data at and This two-site lineup offers the best deal on the web for a quick and relatively dependable dose of political intelligence for monitoring the shifting political terrain via electoral projections.

Of course, if you’re looking for some political-oriented entertainment to waste an hour or two each day, the usual suspects are only too happy to oblige.