The US Treasury market will be closely watched this week as investors consider if the risk premium for the world’s “safe asset” is in the process of resetting high. A possible warning sign: the 10-year yield rose sharply last week despite growing concerns that US economic growth is slowing. The flight-to-safety trade, which usually benefits Treasuries and the US dollar, was conspicously absent in recent days. “The market is re-assessing the structural attractiveness of the dollar as the world’s global reserve currency and is undergoing a process of rapid de-dollarization. Nowhere is this more evident than the continued and combined collapse in the currency and US bond market as this week comes to a close,” Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos wrote in a note to clients Friday.

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● The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World’s Most Coveted Microchip
Stephen Witt
Review via The Economist
Jensen Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993 and has run it since, making him one of Silicon Valley’s longest-serving CEOs. He is among the most approachable—happy to entertain journalists when other tech bosses skulk behind a PR firewall—and, with his signature black leather jacket, among the most recognisable. Yet he remains an elusive subject. Nvidia’s $73bn in net profit last year, not far behind Microsoft’s $88bn, points to a strategic genius at work. His rambling disquisitions on earnings calls scream dumb luck. Which is it?
A new book suggests the answer is both. “The Thinking Machine” by Stephen Witt, a journalist, is the second such corporate biography; “The Nvidia Way” by Tae Kim, a former equity analyst, was published in December and covers similar ground. But Mr Witt approaches his subject with a more critical eye and more verve. He weaves together the story of the man, his company and the computer science that led to large language models (llms) such as ChatGPT, which brought “generative” AI to the masses in 2022.

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The “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher in March vs. the previous month and is now approaching the 4.0% mark – the highest estimate in 16 years. The analysis is based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.

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A key technical signal for the US stock market looks set to go risk-off in the days ahead, based on the S&P 500’s 50-day vs. 200-day averages. Short of a strong rally in the immediate future, the so-called death cross may be near, which some traders will view as a bearish signal for the market’s outlook. Although the signal’s history is far from perfect for market timing, it’s widely followed and so a risk-off switch will likely be seen as a new factor tipping the odds in favor of a bear-market forecast.

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The official first-quarter GDP report from the government that’s scheduled for Apr. 30 is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth, based on the median estimate from several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

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Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days for most countries and hikes import fees for China. What hasn’t change is that uncertainty for the global economy continues. No one’s quite sure what will happen after the 90-day pause. One source of confusion is how the administration will negotiate dozens of bilateral trade deals. “That is a huge task to negotiate simultaneously with that many trading partners over that many issues,” said Greta Peisch, who was general counsel for the U.S. trade representative’s office during the Biden administration.

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Is inflation or slower growth, and perhaps recession, the priority? This basic question hangs over the Federal Reserve as it grapples with deciding how to respond to global trade war.

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Trump’s new tariffs take effect on biggest US trading partners, creating more uncertainty for the global economy. “The primary question… is whether or not there will be negotiations,” said Thierry Wizman, a global strategist at the investment bank Macquarie. “And no one has an answer to that because it’s going to depend on the approach and the disposition of the negotiating parties.”

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Pursuing a structual, sudden change in US trade policy is one thing. That alone is disruptive. Even if it’s a net plus in the longer term (a debatable proposition), the current burden that’s weighing on markets and the economic outlook is a lack of clarity on what the end game is and how the US will get there. It adds up to a one-two gut punch for investor, consumer and business sentiment.

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China says it will “fight to the end” as it retaliates against US import tariffs, which rose to over 100% on Wednesday in response to China’s decision to match the “reciprocal” duties Trump announced last week. “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!”

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