Macro Briefing: 30 April 2021

* Economists expect strong acceleration in US jobs creation for April
* Eurozone economy contracted in first quarter
* Slower growth for China’s mfg and services sectors in April via PMI data
* Rare and perhaps fleeting bipartisan vote as Senate passes water bill
* Pending US home sales rose less than forecast amid tight supply
* US jobless claims continued falling, dropping to new pandemic low last week
* US GDP growth accelerated in Q1 to strong +6.4%:

Waiting For The Inflation Canary To Sing… Or Not

The Federal Reserve reports that it expects faster economic growth and higher inflation – two factors that historically have triggered tighter monetary policy. But the Fed is playing a different game this time and announced on Wednesday that it will keep interest rates near zero. Depending on your macro outlook, this is either hopelessly naïve or a clear-eyed view of looking through what some anticipate will be reflationary noise for the next several months.

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Macro Briefing: 28 April 2021

* Biden today will outline $1.8 trillion proposal in new spending and tax credits
* India’s coronavirus crisis worsens as pandemic breaks health system
* Profits for Google and Microsoft surge as the firms thrive during the pandemic
* Fed expected to maintain aggressive monetary stimulus despite faster growth
* US Consumer Confidence Index rises to 14-month high in April
* Manufacturing growth in Richmond Fed district is steady in April vs. March
* US 1-year housing price increase continued to accelerate in February:

Has The Fed’s Monetary Policy Playbook Run Out Of Road?

Whatever your view of the higher inflation expectations of late, particularly if firmer pricing pressure persists, it would be a distinct change from what’s prevailed over the past 40 years. Disinflation/deflation (DD) has been a dominant macro factor since Paul Volcker broke the back of inflation in a run of uber-hawkish monetary policy in the early 1980s. Since then, DD reigns supreme, arguably to the point that the policy of promoting this outcome has become a problem in its own right.

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Macro Briefing: 27 April 2021

* US population rose at slowest rate since 1930s in previous decade
* California’s governor will likely a recall vote this fall
* UK to send naval flotilla through tense waters in Asia next month
* Tesla reports strong earnings gain, in part boosted by trading bitcoin
* Are ESG market-beating results an illusion?
* Texas manufacturing activity continues expanding at strong pace in April
* US durable goods orders rebounded in March after loss in previous month
* Texas, Florida gains seats via new census data; NY and Calif. each lose a seat:

Macro Briefing: 26 April 2021

* Key swing vote in Senate says he’ll back targeted version of infrastructure bill
* Fully vaccinated Americans can visit Europe Union this summer
* India’s Covid surge is ‘spreading like wildfire’
* Space junk: ticking time-bomb for vital satellites orbiting earth
* Options market prices in rising odds of 3%-plus US consumer inflation
* Wide-ranging increases in prices spur worry that global markets are in a bubble
* New US home sales rebounded sharply in March
* US economy ‘firing on all cylinders’ via Apr PMI survey data: