Shares in US companies topped returns for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds through April 1. The rally in American stocks unfolded in a week when global equities overall posted solid gains.
Macro Briefing: 5 April 2021
* Wall Street eyes higher corporate taxes in Biden’s new stimulus plan
* Veteran pension consultant recommends simplifying portfolios with indexing
* Is worker productivity at long last set to rise?
* Some states try to derail Biden’s clean energy agenda
* US payrolls surged in March, well above forecasts
* Goldman Sach reverses its bearish dollar forecast as Treasury yields rise
* US Dollar Index rose for third straight week after strong payrolls report:
Book Bits: 3 April 2021
Justyn Walsh
Review via The Wall Street Journal
When Keynes died in 1946, his net assets totaled some $30 million in today’s money. While his books had sold well, he had made the bulk of his fortune by investing smartly, often from his bed in the mornings after digesting the news. During his 25 years running the King’s College endowment, he generated an annual return of 16%, adapting his investment style to flourish even during the Great Depression and World War II.
Mr. Walsh, a former investment banker and the chief executive of an asset-management firm, explains how.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 2 April 2021
Keeping up with beta remains challenging this year. All three of our proprietary strategies are still trailing the Global Beta 16 benchmark (G.B16). That’s not to say that the prop strategies don’t add value – they do, but not in raw performance, at least not so far this year. The risk-management edge, by contrast, remains intact, albeit in varying degrees and on different fronts across the trio of prop strategies. For details on strategy rules and risk metrics in the tables below, please see this summary.
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 April 2021
The expected risk premium (return above the “risk-free” rate) for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher last month, rising to an annualized 5.7% — up slightly from the previous estimate. That’s still well below the trailing realized performance for the benchmark, but it represents a relatively elevated estimate compared with forecasts in recent history.
Macro Briefing: 2 April 2021
* Economists see two-speed growth outlook for global economy with US leading
* Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 10-year high in March
* European Union’s credibility at risk after bloc’s mistakes during pandemic
* China puts new limits on foreign banks’ business operations in the country
* US construction spending fell in Feb, probably due to unusually cold weather
* Inflation pressures building in the US manufacturing sector
* US jobless claims were higher than expected last week
* ISM Manufacturing Index rose to a 37-year high in March:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 1 April 2021
In this issue:
- A good for week equities
- Our portfolio strategy benchmarks continue to rebound
Major Asset Classes | March 2021 | Performance Review
US real estate investment trusts (REITs) topped returns for the major asset classes in March, rising 4.4%. The gain follows a second-place rally in February for domestic property shares.
Macro Briefing: 1 April 2021
* Biden outlines $2 trillion infrastructure plan
* Businesses voice opposition to Georgia’s restrictive changes in voting laws
* China manufacturing growth slowed to softest pace in nearly a year
* Eurozone mfg output accelerated to record high growth in March via PMI data
* US pending home sales fell sharply in Feb due to lowest supply in history
* Chicago PMI, a regional economic indicator, rose in March to highest since 2018
* US dollar’s share of global reserves falls to 25-year low
* US companies added jobs in March at fastest pace since September:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 31 March 2021
Introducing A New Strategy: Global Momentum
Starting with the next update of our proprietary strategies, Global Momentum (G.B16.MOM) will join the party. In line with the other two prop strategies, G.B16.MOM will use our standard 16-ETF opportunity set that spans the major asset classes on a global basis. The difference: G.B16.MOM will use price momentum as a risk-management tool (vs. return volatility and drawdown for the other two strategies).