Monday’s scheduled report on US retail sales for April is projected to remain unchanged vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That compares with a 0.4% decline reported by the Census Bureau for March. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection for April is slightly above a consensus forecast based on a recent survey of economists.
Another 5-Year Low For Jobless Claims
It’s the gift that keeps on giving. Initial jobless claims slipped again last week, retreating by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000—the lowest since January 2008. The latest drop is slight, but the fact that claims fell to another multi-year low for the week through May 4 is significant. The main takeaway in today’s report: the odds continue to look favorable for modest growth in the labor market.
The Chronic Crisis That Is The Euro
Lars Seier Christensen, the co-chief executive of Saxo Bank, thinks it’s only a matter of time before the euro passes into history as another failed experiment in the dark art of monetary machinations.”It is the renewed reality for traders and investors,” he advised at a Bloomberg conference last week in London. “The euro is a doomed currency and a lot of people knew that already when it was introduced. Rationality needs to return to the Eurozone. If it doesn’t, recession will turn into depression.”
A Reality Check For Two Employment Indicators
If the US was slipping into a recession, would the evidence be conspicuous in the labor market data? History says that’s a good bet. In fact, it’s inconceivable that the country could go into a macro hissy fit without a sharp downturn in jobs creation. Anything’s possible, of course, but bolts of unprecedented behavior from the blue are a rare breed in economics. That’s good news these days because the trend still looks encouraging on this front. To be precise, the so-called establishment survey from the Labor Department continues to hold up, providing a relatively steady year-over-year growth rate of just under 2%. The household survey, by contrast, looks relatively wobbly, although this series is now looking a bit stronger too.
The Whole & The Parts
One of the biggest challenges for successfully managing asset allocation comes from a familiar source: you. There are many resources to tap for excelling on the technical side of portfolio management. From researching fund products to sorting market valuations to dissecting risk and return, there are countless analytical tools at your disposal in the information age. But no matter how many web sites you visit, no matter how many data points you crunch, managing your behavioral biases isn’t getting any easier.
Q2:2013 US GDP Nowcast | 5.6.2013
Second-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 2.9% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. This is an initial estimate that uses limited Q2 data and so the projection is a preliminary review that will be revised several times as new economic data arrives. The final nowcast will be published shortly before the official report for Q2 GDP, which is scheduled for release on July 31, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes the first of three estimates.
Book Bits | 5.04.13
● The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market
By Michael G. Pento
Summary via publisher, Wiley
America is rapidly approaching a financial apocalypse far exceeding the devastation caused by the 2007 housing bubble burst and subsequent Great Recession. The country is in the final stages of the biggest asset bubble in history: U.S. Treasury debt. When this bubble bursts, a massive interest rate shock will send the U.S. government and the consumer economy into bankruptcy, an event with repercussions that will be felt throughout the global economy. In this economic expert’s new book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market, Michael G. Pento explains how the bubble was created, what we can do to ameliorate the crisis and how investors can protect themselves regardless of what economic condition prevails.
April Payrolls Rebound
Maybe the spring slowdown isn’t as slow as we thought. Private-sector payrolls increased by a net 176,000 in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, or roughly in line with expectations, the Labor Department reports. In addition, March’s initially estimated 95,000 increase has been substantially revised up to a 154,000 gain. In other words, the odds still look favorable for expecting modest growth in the labor market.
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: April 2013 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 178,000 in tomorrow’s April update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The projected gain is substantially higher than the reported increase for March and slightly above a pair of consensus forecasts for April, based on two surveys of economists.
Unemployment Filings Fell To A New Post-Recession Low Last Week
Initial jobless claims dropped again last week, slipping to a new five-year low. The news is an upbeat counterpoint to the weak economic numbers released earlier this week. New filings for unemployment benefits retreated to a seasonally adjusted 324,000 for the week through April 27, the lowest since January 2008. It’s been easy to interpret recent data as a sign that the economy’s stumbling again, perhaps fatally, but today’s release looks like a statistical stay of execution, if only for a day.