The Capital Spectator’s latest nowcast of third-quarter GDP pares the outlook ever so slightly to real annualized growth of 1.93%, or down a touch from the previous 1.95% estimate. That’s effectively no change from the earlier nowcast, which implies that the outlook for the economy remains in a holding pattern of sluggish growth. That said, the current nowcast represents a small improvement over the 1.7% growth rate for Q2, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The current nowcast incorporates today’s update on housing data for August, along with fresh numbers through yesterday on the three market factors in our nowcast GDP model: the stock market, oil prices, and the Treasury yield spread for the 10-year Note less the 3-month T-bill. (For a list of the model’s 10 factors and a briefing on the methodology, see this post. For a look at the model’s in-sample history, click here.)
Here’s how the latest nowcast compares with officially reported GDP data in recent history:
Here’s how the Q3:2012 U.S. GDP nowcast has evolved since the model’s launch earlier this month:
The official Q3:2012 GDP report is scheduled for release on October 26.