Strategic Briefing | 10.21.2011 | US Leading Indicators

September Leading Economic Index
Conference Board | Oct 20
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 116.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.6 percent increase in July. Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “September data shows moderating growth in both the LEI and the CEI. The weaknesses among the leading indicator components have become slightly more widespread in September. Moreover, the CEI suggests current economic conditions have been slow, with weak gains in all four components over the past six months. The slow pace in the LEI suggests a growing chance that this sluggish economy is going to be here for a while.”

Conference Board sees 50 percent chance of recession
Reuters | Oct 20
The U.S. economy faces a 50 percent chance of recession despite modest gains in a leading index of activity, a private sector research group said on Thursday. The Conference Board’s leading index rose 0.2 percent last month, a smaller rise than analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, following a 0.3 percent gain in August.
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rose 0.2% in September
Bloomberg | Oct 20
The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.2 percent after a 0.3 percent gain in August, the New York-based research group said today. The September increase, the lowest since a decline in April, matched economists’ projections, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Leading indicators edge up 0.2 percent in September, signaling modest growth in future
AP | Oct 20
For September, the Conference Board said that the biggest positive contribution to the index came from the difference in short-term and long-term interest rates. Other positive factors were the growth in the money supply, supplier delivery times, the index of consumer expectations and new orders for consumer goods and materials. The biggest negative factor for the index in September was weakness in applications for building permits followed by new orders for nondefense capital gods, stock prices and weekly claims for unemployment benefits.
Leading Indicators: Slower Growth is the Theme
John Silvia (Wells Fargo) | Oct 20
The leading economic index rose 0.2 percent in September and has risen 5 percent over the past three months. This pattern suggests continued growth for the next six months, yet the pace of growth remains modest.