Are the days of the jobless recovery numbered? Yes, according to the latest survey that was released today.
The Capital Spectator has obtained a copy of the full report. Among the highlights:
* NABE-member economists predict a moderately higher pace of economic growth for this year’s fourth quarter compared to the outlook made in October. According to the report, “The fourth quarter of 2009 is now slated for a 3.0 percent pace of real GDP growth and 2010 is predicted to experience a gain of 3.2 percent over its four quarters. For the two years combined, growth is expected to be one-half of a percentage point above the forecast made in October. Economic growth is projected to slightly exceed its trend pace—which NABE panelists estimate at 2.7 percent—over the next five quarters.”
* The household sector is still expected to post sluggish results for the near term. “Past wealth losses, and initially stagnant employment conditions,” the NABE advises, “are predicted to result in lackluster consumer spending gains over the coming year.”
* Meanwhile, the recovery “will not remain jobless for long,” the report forecasts. “With more than 7.3 million jobs lost since December 2007, NABE panelists believe the end of net employment losses is near, with modest declines during the fourth quarter followed by a ‘bottom’ in the first quarter of 2010 and gains thereafter.”
In addition, the report expects that the “nascent housing recovery… will gather momentum” and business investment will be “an engine of growth driving the economic recovery.”
Overall, the new NABE survey reaffirms the polling’s previous conclusion that the Great Recession is over. “NABE panelists have marked up their predictions for economic growth in 2010 and expect performance to exceed its long-term trend,” the survey notes.
The November 2009 NABE Outlook offers the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 48 professional forecasters. The current survey was taken October 24 through November 5.