The Hudson Institute’s new “Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers” was published yesterday. Among the participants is yours truly. My contribution to inquiring how my blogging counterparts view the world of macro and related subjects these days is asking this esteemed group to rate business cycle risk over the next few months. Most of the responses fall into the range of “neutral/balanced probability” to “highly unlikely.” On that note, last month’s US Economic Profile on these pages estimated the risk closer to the “highly unlikely” category in the here and now (“nowcasting”), and nothing much has changed in my internal weekly updates (I’ll publish a new monthly profile next week).
As for the survey, here’s how the results to my question stack up overall:
The survey offers a number of other insights on the current state of expectations in the macro blogosphere, including this query on the outlook for changes in the 30-year Treasury yield if the Fed ends the current round of quantitative easing. The topic comes to us courtesy of a question posed by Eric Falkenstein of Falkenblog. The majority of answers assume that the yield would rise a moderate 50 to 100 basis points:
To read the rest of the survey, visit The Hudson Institute.