Who Moved My Economic Data?

One of the victims of the federal government’s shutdown is the delay of economic reports. Analyzing the business cycle is hard enough under normal circumstances, but let’s see what happens as we try to dissect the macro tea leaves with a bout of partial blindness for an indeterminate amount of time. That includes going dark on Friday’s September payrolls report, which had been scheduled for release by the Labor Department but is now postponed until further notice. All the more reason to focus on today’s ADP Employment Report, which may end up as the only number available this week for analyzing changes in September’s payrolls.

Tomorrow’s weekly jobless claims data will be published as usual, according to the government, but it’s a mixed bag for next week’s schedule and beyond if the shutdown showdown rolls on. The Wall Street Journal lays out the calendar for the weeks ahead in terms of economic reports that are still scheduled for release vs. those that are expected to be postponed. Here’s an excerpt of what to expect through next week. For the rest of the month, visit the the Journal’s Real Time Economics blog.

7:30 AM—Job cuts (challengergray.com) — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor Dept) — STILL ON
10 AM—ISM nonmanufacturing (ism.ws) — STILL ON
10 AM—Factory orders (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
FRIDAY, Oct. 4
8:30 AM—Employment report (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
MONDAY, Oct. 7
3 PM–Consumer credit (Federal Reserve) — STILL ON
7:30 AM—NFIB survey (nfib.com) – STILL ON
8:30 AM—International trade (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
10 AM—Job openings and labor turnover (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
10 AM—Wholesale trade (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor) — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Import prices (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
2 pm—Federal budget (Treasury Dept) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
FRIDAY, Oct. 11
8:30 AM—Retail sales (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
8:30 AM—Producer-price index (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
9:55 AM—Consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) — STILL ON
10 AM—Business inventories (Commerce) POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN