Monthly Archives: November 2017

Macro Briefing: 17 November 2017

House passes tax bill–focus now turns to Senate: Reuters
World’s largest sovereign wealth fund considers selling oil stocks: Bloomberg
US industrial output surges in Oct after hurricane disruptions fade: Reuters
US jobless claims rise to 6-week high: Bloomberg
Confidence among US home builders rises to 7-month high in Nov: Housing Wire
Philly Fed manufacturing index falls in Nov but still signaling growth: RTT
Nasa tool predicts which coastal cities will be flooded from global warming: CNN
Yale’s David Swensen says low stock market vol is “profoundly troubling”: CFR
Will AI’s use in financial markets raise systemic risk? VoxEU
2-Year Treasury yield rises to nine-year high — 1.72%: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 16 November 2017

Johnson is the first GOP senator to oppose tax-reform bill: Politico
US retail sales rose a moderate 4.6% for y-o-y change through Oct: USA Today
US core inflation up 1.8% y-o-y in Oct–first acceleration since Jan: Bloomberg
NY Fed Mfg Index falls but still pointing to healthy growth: RTT
Year-ahead business inflation expectations inch up to 2.0%: Atlanta Fed
Business inventories in US unchanged in Sep: Reuters
A handshake suggests warmer relations between China and Japan : NY Times
Will global economic growth keep the bull market humming? MarketWatch
S&P 500 slumps to a three-week low: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing: 15 November 2017

Zimbabwe’s military appears to take over government: NY Times
China to send envoy to N. Korea: Bloomberg
Report finds that richest 1% own half the world’s wealth: USA Today
India will lead world’s energy demand growth through 2040: IEA
Senate committee reviews Trump’s authority to use nuclear weapons: ABC
Wholesale inflation in US for Oct posts biggest rise in over 5 years: Reuters
US small business optimism near record high in October: CNBC
Japan’s Q3 GDP rises 0.3%–longest growth run since 2001: Nikkei
The US labor-force participation rate has been sliding for 17 years: Philly Fed 

Will US Inflation Tick Higher In 2018?

The Federal Reserve has been trying to lift the inflation trend in recent years with limited success. Key measures of the price trend remain below the central bank’s 2.0% target and recent data point to more of the same for the immediate future. But there are hints that the inflation is stabilizing, perhaps laying the groundwork for creeping higher in the new year.
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Macro Briefing: 14 November 2017

Republicans aim to prevent Moore from becoming a Senator: The Hill
Trump claims progress on changing rules to cut US trade deficit: Bloomberg
Lebanon’s political crisis threatens wider troubles for Middle East: WaPo
Economists upbeat on US growth outlook in new Philly Fed survey: MNI
China’s industrial output and retail spending growth tick down in Oct: RTT
China leads world with fastest supercomputers: CNET
Maybe low stock-market volatility is normal: Bloomberg
US economy near full employment; implies more rate hikes: Fed Watch
US year-ahead inflation outlook ticks up to 2.6%, a 6-month high: NY Fed

Macro Briefing: 13 November 2017

Iran-Iraq earthquake kills hundreds: USA Today
Trump meets Philippine president, says they have “great relationship”: BBC
GOP leaders predict the House will pass tax-reform bill this week: Politico
US Consumer Sentiment pulls back in Nov after reaching 13-year high: CNBC
Why is the US Treasury yield curve flattening? Bloomberg
Dir. of research at SF Fed: wage growth is above trend and picking up: MNI
Eurozone on track for strong growth and low inflation: Bloomberg
US Q4 GDP nowcast continues to print at strong +3.85%:

Book Bits | 11 November 2017

Dollars and Sense: How We Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter
By Dan Ariely and Jeff Kreisler
Summary via publisher (HarperCollins)
We think of money as numbers, values, and amounts, but when it comes down to it, when we actually use our money, we engage our hearts more than our heads. Emotions play a powerful role in shaping our financial behavior, often making us our own worst enemies as we try to save, access value, and spend responsibly. In Dollars and Sense, bestselling author and behavioral economist Dan Ariely teams up with financial comedian and writer Jeff Kreisler to challenge many of our most basic assumptions about the precarious relationship between our brains and our money. In doing so, they undermine many of personal finance’s most sacred beliefs and explain how we can override some of our own instincts to make better financial choices.
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