Daily Archives: Apr 12, 2018 at 07:05 am EST

Treasury Interest-Rate Spread Narrows To Lowest Level Since 2007

A widely followed measure of the Treasury yield curve has resumed its decline in recent days, dipping to its flattest level in more than a decade. The narrowing between long and short rates is generally considered a signal of weaker economic activity in the future. An inversion of the  curve – short rates above long rates – would be a warning that a new US recession was brewing.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 12 April 2018

West considers Syria attack, which risks confrontation with Russia: Reuters
House Speaker to retire, scrambling GOP plans for mid-term elections: NY Times
Consumer inflation’s annual pace ticks up to one-year high: 2.4%: MarketWatch
Oil jumps to 3-year high on rising Mideast tensions: MarketWatch
Fed: trade-war risk outweighs inflation for setting monetary policy: Bloomberg
Facebook’s Zuckerberg faced tougher questions on 2nd day of testimony: c|net
All Fed policymakers say US economy is strengthening via FOMC minutes: Reuters
US federal deficit widened in first half of fiscal year: WSJ
CBO: US federal budget deficit on track to reach nearly 100% of GDP by 2028: CBO
Business inflation outlook edges up to 2.3% y-o-y, highest since 2011: Atlanta Fed