Daily Archives: May 10, 2018 at 07:19 am EDT

The Recession Predictions Keep Coming: An Update

Predicting recessions is difficult bordering on impossible, but one prediction you can count on is that there will always be a surplus of newly minted warnings that a new downturn is near. Periodically I review recent examples (here’s last year’s update and its predecessor in 2016) and it’s time for a fresh look at how analysts continually convince themselves that the risk of economic contraction appears to be threatening.
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Macro Briefing: 10 May 2018

Israel fires missiles at Iranian targets in Syria: BBC
Trump meets 3 Americans freed from North Korea: The Hill
Trump’s decision on Iran echoes prelude to Iraq war, some analysts say: Reuters
Saudi Arabia will pursue nuclear weapons if Iran does: CNN
China set to benefit if West isolates Iran: Bloomberg
Wholesale US inflation for April eased to 2.6% y-o-y from 3.0%: MarketWatch
A measure of US wholesale trade continued to grow in March: CNBC
Atlanta Fed president: inflation “already effectively on target”: MNI
US corporations facing massive $4 trillion refinancing wall: Bloomberg