Daily Archives: Dec 21, 2018 at 06:59 am EST

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 21 December 2018

It’s always difficult to know exactly why the stock market is falling (or if a decline is even based on a reasonable interpretation of macro events). But it’s a safe bet that rising investor anxiety over the outlook for the US economy is a contributing factor in the recent slide. It’s debatable if the haircut is overdone, although it’s clear that an attitude adjustment on US economic prospects is front and center in the crowd’s thinking.
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Macro Briefing: 21 December 2018

Defense Sec. Mattis resigns, citing conflict with Trump’s policies: Reuters
House passes stopgap bill with border-wall money, raising shutdown risk: The Hill
US planned withdrawal from Syria reshuffles Mideast geopolitics: NY Times
Asian stocks fall on Friday after Wall Street’s plunge: MW
US Leading Economic Index ticked up in Nov but signals slower growth ahead: CB
Philly Fed Mfg Index falls to lowest level in over 2 years: MW
US jobless claims edge higher but remain near 49-year low: CNBC
US stock mkt volatility (VIX Index) set for biggest annual surge in 2018: Bloomberg