Daily Archives: Feb 15, 2019 at 07:34 am EDT

Weak Retail Spending In December Weighs On US Q4 GDP Outlook

The unexpected drop in retail sales in December has raised uncertainty about the upcoming report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Prior to yesterday’s update on consumer spending for the final month of 2018 most estimates of the Q4 economic activity reflected moderate growth in the mid-to-high 2% range. But the St. Louis Fed’s GDPNow model slashed the Q4 outlook to a sluggish 1.5% after the release of retail sales data. That GDP estimate is an outlier on the downside at the moment. The question is whether nowcasts from other sources will fall in the days ahead as the latest retail data factors into the calculus?
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Macro Briefing: 15 February 2019

Congress sends legislation to Trump to avoid shutdown: Bloomberg
Legal challenges await Trump’s decision to call a nat’l emergency: Reuters
US-China trade talks set to continue, but no deal so far: SCMP
As federal debt rises to record, politicians are mum: NY Times
China’s banks lend record amount in Jan in bid to stimulate economy: Reuters
Amazon cancels plans to build a New York City headquarters: WSJ
US jobless claims rose last week, remaining at relatively elevated level: Bloomberg
Business inventories in US slipped in November: MW
Producer price index for US fell for a second month in January: Reuters
US retail spending fell sharply in December–biggest slide in over 9 years: CNBC