Daily Archives: Jul 18, 2019 at 07:19 am EDT

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 18 July 2019

How slow can it go before slipping into recession? Economic growth in the US has decelerated in recent months and there are new signs in today’s update that the macro trend is at risk of continuing to lose speed (gradually) in the months ahead. Thus the critical question: Where does the tipping point lie? Unclear, although the potential for trouble is creeping higher.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 18 July 2019

Ebola outbreak in Congo declared a global health emergency: AP
US-China trade talks stuck in neutral: WSJ
US preparing to send troops to Saudi Arabia as Iran tensions rise: CNN
House kills impeachment vote on Trump: The Hill
GDPNow estimate of US Q2 growth remains at sluggish +1.6%: Atlanta Fed
Netflix reports first slide in US users in almost 10 years: WSJ
UK retail spending rebounded in June, surprising analysts: Reuters
Fed’s Beige Book survey reflects positive economic outlook: Bloomberg
1-year trend for US housing starts rebounded in June but permits stay negative: