Daily Archives: Mar 19, 2020 at 07:43 am EDT

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 March 2020

The global coronavirus pandemic is creating havoc in economies around the world and the US is no exception. In the wake of this crisis, the standard modeling techniques have become worthless for estimating current conditions and estimating the near-term. The only thing that’s certain is that a significant shock is unfolding in real time—a shock that’s not being picked up, yet, in the economic data that’s been published to date. But there will be blood. The key questions for the recession: how deep and how long? Unclear. Since we’re heading into an unprecedented period in modern times, uncertainty is extraordinarily high. Nonetheless, let’s run through the numbers, if only as an academic exercise to profile the US economy as it was on the eve of the deluge.

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Macro Briefing | 19 March 2020

US gov’t working on large economic stimulus bill: Bloomberg
A virus recession will create an unprecedented shock for the global economy: BBG
Coronavirus pandemic will test limits of how much debt US gov’t can bear: WSJ
Layoffs rising at US businesses as coronavirus spreads: WSJ
China reports no new local infections–a positive milestone: NY Times
Credit crisis looms as investors dump lesser grades of corporate credit: Reuters
Fed offers emergency lending to support money market mutual funds: WSJ
New US housing construction fell in Feb–ahead of coronavirus disruption: MW
US crude oil benchmark collapses to just over $20 a barrel on Wednesday: