The bombings in Iraq go on and on, but the United States’ resolve to go the distance remains unwavering, the President tells us. But is it reasonable to assume that the White House will keep the troops in Iraq through the end of Bush’s term, which ends in January 2008? If so, will the U.S. military stay in Iraq on through the next administration? Or is there a chance that America will conclude that its presence should end sooner rather than later?
Monthly Archives: July 2005
JULY SURPRISE
Tax revenues are rolling in faster than some had expected, but if you thought that would trigger widespread optimism on what it says about the underlying state of economic health, think again.
JUGGLING THE CONUNDRUM
Steady as she goes at the European Central Bank. Ditto for the Bank of England. And now, this morning, we learn that the Bank of Canada is saying no to raising interest rates too. Do we smell a trend here?
RELATIVELY SPEAKING
Oil, gasoline and virtually every other fuel price posts strong gains in the 21st century. But if you thought that would have an impact on the energy sector’s relative market-cap ranking in the S&P 500, you’ve been hornswoggled by Mr. Market.
ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER SPLIT DECISION
The European Central Bank yesterday joined the bond market in reasserting the belief that the path of least resistance for the price of money, if not lower is at least sideways. The ECB kept its key interest rate at 2% yesterday, despite predictions by some pundits that monetary easing was imminent on the Continent. Standing pat at the ECB comes in the wake of the 25-basis-point hike in fed funds to 3.25% on June 30.
VOLATILITY IN A VACUUM
Terrorism reared its ugly head again today, this time in London, the scene of a series of explosions this morning. In addition to more immediate concerns of safety, mourning the dead and caring for the injured, the lesser issues of what it means for the global economy and the world’s capital markets inevitably come seeping back into the minds of traders.
A WINK’S AS GOOD AS A NOD TO A BLIND MAN
If China National Offshore Oil Corp., or CNOOC, wins the bidding war for Unocal, the El Segundo, Calif.-based oil company, does it follow that that the newly acquired energy will be diverted to China? Not necessarily. Oil is a fungible commodity, and so it’s consumed by the highest bidder, the New Yorker’s James Surowiecki argues. “In today’s world whether or not you own the means of oil production doesn’t affect your access to the stuff.”
CHASING THE FOREIGN EDGE
Institutional investors are no strangers to international investing, but that doesn’t stop the big boys from rediscovering foreign equities every so often. Are we in the middle of one of those rediscovery moments now?
A NEW QUARTER & THE SAME OLD QUESTIONS
The old logic that one shouldn’t fight the Fed suffered yet another indignity yesterday. It was hard not to notice the divergence between the rise of the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and the decline in yield for the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note by roughly seven basis points to around 3.91%.