Yesterday’s selling wave that slashed commodities prices is a reminder that this is a volatile asset class and so its value is limited as an input for setting monetary policy. Once again, we have a real-world lesson in why central banks focus on core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices. It’s hardly reasonable to ignore commodities in monitoring future inflation expectations, but it’s easy to go overboard with reading too much into raw materials prices.
Monthly Archives: May 2011
Initial Jobless Claims Surge To 8-Month High
The news in this morning’s update on new weekly jobless claims is bad. In fact, it’s the worst report for this series since the recession ended in mid-2009. The Labor Department argues, according to Bloomberg, that the unusually big jump in claims was due to “auto-plant shutdowns and other unusual events that seasonal variations failed to take into account.” In any case, new filings for unemployment benefits surged last week by a seasonally adjusted 43,000–the biggest weekly jump in more than two years. As a result, claims hit 474,000 for the week through April 30, the highest since last August.
ADP: April Private Payrolls Rise, But At Slowest Pace In Months
It’s still growing, but job creation slowed last month, according to today’s release of the ADP Employment Report. Nonfarm private jobs rose by 179,000 in April on a seasonally adjusted basis–down from March’s gain of 207,000. That’s strong enough to offer convincing evidence that the labor market is still expanding with enough forward momentum to keep the party going in the months ahead. But it’s also true that last month’s gain was the smallest since last November’s tepid 122,000 rise.
Talking About Monetary Policy & The Economy
I’ll be one of five panelists chatting up the outlook for the economy in tomorrow’s teleconference at noon eastern hosted by Focus. Here are the details on how to listen in…
The March Rebound
All the major economic reports for March are in and it’s clear that the setback in February was reversed, and then some.
The Bulls Of April
April was a foolproof month for investing. All the major asset classes posted handsome gains last month, leaving no room for excuses for active strategies that stumbled.