The government’s employment report for September that’s theoretically due for release tomorrow will probably remain a mystery this week, courtesy of the government shutdown. In contrast, today’s weekly update on jobless claims has been spared Washington’s axe of fiscal mayhem, at least for this week. New filings for jobless benefits inched higher by 1,000 in today’s report, settling at a seasonally adjusted 308,000 for the week through September 28. Apparently some corners of the Labor Department are better than others at dispensing economic numbers when Congress is suffering from a fiscal hissy fit. In any case, the key takeaway in the data du jour is that claims continue to bump around at levels within shouting distance of a seven-year low. An even stronger message in today’s release is the news that the year-over-year rate of decline is still running at relatively deep levels, which is an unequivocally bullish sign for anticipating the near-term trend for the labor market.
Daily Archives: October 3, 2013
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: September 2013 Preview
The Labor Department’s employment report for September, officially scheduled for release tomorrow, October 4, will be postponed because of the government shutdown. But assuming that the data will be published at some point, private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 192,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the September update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric point forecast. The projected gain is substantially higher than the previously reported increase of 152,000 for August. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s average projection for September is moderately above a pair of consensus forecasts for private payrolls, based on surveys of economists.