What’s the economic fallout from the ongoing budget battle in Washington? It’s hard to say at this point, although there are signs that the macro trend is wilting, according to a markets-based profile of US economic conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 8.7% yesterday, October 7. Although that’s still at a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low, the declining trend is worrisome in the current climate. At yesterday’s close, MMRI is near the lowest level of the year. If the impasse in Congress rolls on, which may deteriorate into a Treasury default as well, it’s likely that we’ll see MMRI slip further. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply a bias for economic growth.