Now that the government has re-opened and the insanity has passed (at least until early next year, when the budget debate begins anew), it’s time to begin climbing out of the data hole. That includes publishing the missing employment report for September, which has been rescheduled for release next Tuesday, Oct. 22, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Daily Archives: October 17, 2013
A Small But Positive Bit Of Progress In Jobless Claims
The jobless claims data is still choking on the backlog blowback, or so it seems based on today’s weekly update on new filings for unemployment benefits. The modest dip in claims for the week through October 12—down 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000—is a step in the right direction after the previous surge skyward, which is also attributed to the after-effect of computer glitches. But the latest slide falls well short of convincing evidence that the trend is headed lower once more.
Macro-Markets Risk Index: 10.4% | 10.17.2013
The shutdown showdown is over, the government has re-opened, and the imminent threat of a Treasury default has been averted. Now the damage assessment can begin in earnest. Estimating the economic price tag for the fiscal war in Congress will take time, a process that will be hampered due to the missing updates on key economic indicators that became victims of the political stalemate in Washington. It’s unclear if these numbers, including September’s retail sales, will be published anytime soon, if at all. Meantime, let’s take a fresh look at what we do know via the latest macro profile based on market data. For the moment, a slight rebound appears to be underway. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday, October 16, at 10.4%–a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. Yesterday’s close is MMRI’s highest reading since mid-September. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply a bias for economic growth.