Monday’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) has been postponed due to the recent government shutdown. When the data is released, September’s three-month CFNAI average is expected to rise slightly to -0.14, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. (The four underlying models for this projection, by the way, use data through August and so the government shutdown that delayed publication of September economic data doesn’t currently affect the CFNAI projections. For details on the models, see the summaries below.) In the previous release for August, the three-month average was reported as -0.18. Values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with economic expansion, albeit at a below-trend rate.