The missing economic reports due to the government shutdown will start arriving this week and beyond, beginning with tomorrow’s employment report for September. Meanwhile, let’s consider what the available numbers tell us about the state of the US business cycle. Based on the latest data, economic risk remains low through last month. This profile comes with an unusual caveat, of course: several key indicators are still MIA. At this point in the month we should have already seen September numbers on payrolls, retail sales, industrial production, and new housing starts. Those updates are coming, but for now we’re clueless. Nonetheless, let’s kick the macro tires for an update look at the trend, albeit one that’s impaired by limited data.