If you ignore the 2.2% decline in auto sales last month, today’s update on September retail sales looks ok. But cherry-picking the numbers offers a thin if not misleading veil of comfort at the moment. Indeed, the year-over-year change in retail spending dipped last month to a rate that’s close to the slowest pace in three years. Is this a sign of trouble? No one really knows at this point. It’s possible that all the talk last month of a government shutdown and the possibility of a Treasury default skewed the data. Some optimists also reason that the relative shortage of shopping days last month is a factor. Deciding what’s really going on will take a few more monthly updates to sort it all out. Meanwhile, there’s enough weakness in today’s data if you include auto numbers to keep the crowd wondering what happens next.
Daily Archives: October 29, 2013
There’s Nothing “Regular” About The Business Cycle
I’m reluctant to disagree with a newly minted Nobel laureate in economics, but I just can’t let Robert Shiller’s remark about the business cycle pass without comment. “The world economy is softening a bit,” he told Yahoo Finance yesterday. “There’s always a chance of another recession. It’s been six years since the last recession started — they tend to come along with some regularity.” Regularity? Well, actually that’s the wrong word to use on this subject for a simple reason: there’s nothing regular when it comes to the timing of recessions.