It’s Halloween, but there are no goblins in today’s labor market report. New filings for unemployment benefits fell again last week, slipping 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000. That’s still at an elevated level relative to recent history, but we’re again moving in the right direction. The data glitches that harassed this series over the past month or so are receding. In turn, we’re left with the encouraging sight of claims returning to a downward trend, or so it appears. Exhibit A is the 7% year-over-year decline in claims for the week through October 26. That’s the biggest slide since late-September and it suggests that the labor market, although wobbly these days via recent updates on payrolls, continues to grow.
Daily Archives: October 31, 2013
ISM Manufacturing Index: October 2013 Preview
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to increase marginally to 56.3 in tomorrow’s October update (scheduled for release on November 1), based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The estimate reflects a trivial rise from the previously reported 56.2 for September. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection is substantially higher than three consensus forecasts for September via surveys of economists. Indeed, all three surveys project that today’s ISM number will decline sharply vs. the previous month.