Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are expected to increase by 173,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s January update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The projected rise is roughly twice as high as the previously reported increase of 87,000 for December. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s median January projection is in the middle of a pair of consensus forecasts, based on surveys of economists.
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Jobless claims fell last week, retreating 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 331,000. The drop was large enough to push the crucial year-over-year change down to an 8.3% decline from the year-ago level. But new claims are still wandering in a range: roughly 300,000 to 350,000 so far this year. Is unusually cold temperatures and a harsh winter in some parts of the US to blame for the relatively sluggish performance of late? That’s a possibility, although we’ll know for sure in the coming weeks if that’s a viable explanation as more data is published. Meantime, today’s claims release offers a bit of mild encouragement in the sense that new filings for unemployment benefits aren’t consistently trending higher. But there’s no downside momentum either and so the jury’s still out on what it all means.
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Marketwatch.com noted earlier this week that “bonds are suddenly the hot investment.” Barron’s offered a similar analysis a few days earlier: “Bond prices have surged so far this, defying conventional expectations.” But deciding if the bond market is “hot” relies rather heavily on your definition of the asset class and choice of time period.
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