The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly to -0.04 in the February update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (Mar. 24), according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. In the previous release for January, the three-month average was +0.10, a reading that equates with economic expansion. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for February, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth, but at a marginally below-trend pace.
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