Monthly Archives: March 2020

Macro Briefing | 19 March 2020

US gov’t working on large economic stimulus bill: Bloomberg
A virus recession will create an unprecedented shock for the global economy: BBG
Coronavirus pandemic will test limits of how much debt US gov’t can bear: WSJ
Layoffs rising at US businesses as coronavirus spreads: WSJ
China reports no new local infections–a positive milestone: NY Times
Credit crisis looms as investors dump lesser grades of corporate credit: Reuters
Fed offers emergency lending to support money market mutual funds: WSJ
New US housing construction fell in Feb–ahead of coronavirus disruption: MW
US crude oil benchmark collapses to just over $20 a barrel on Wednesday:

Macro Briefing | 18 March 2020

Trump seeks $1 trillion economic stimulus for ailing US economy: Reuters
Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: policy mistakes could result in 20% jobless rate: CNN
Fed to reopen short-term lending resource to large financial institutions: WSJ
Biden wins Tues primaries, effectively becoming Democratic nominee: WSJ
Worst rout in credit mkts since global financial crisis is spreading: BBG
Surging US dollar is new risk factor for emerging market economies: BBG
Crude oil falls to 17-year low: Reuters
Is Boeing (largest US manufacturer) at risk of going under? NY Times
US industrial production rebounds in Feb, ahead of coronavirus blowback: MW
US retail spending unexpectedly dropped in Feb–first decline in 5 months: MW

A Brief Tour Of The Dark US Economic Outlook

The published data suggest moderate growth remains intact, but the rear-view mirror has rarely been so meaningless for assessing the likely path of the economic trend in the months ahead. As the coronavirus blowback spreads, the US economy is slowing, and in many sectors grinding to a halt. The result, of course, is that a recession appears inevitable, perhaps a severe one. The optimistic view is that the downturn will be short and the bounce-back will be strong. But economists are now in agreement: output will probably contract.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 17 March 2020

Trump shifts tone, says coronavirus may last through summer: BBC
US economy may be grinding to a halt as coronavirus spreads: NY Times
Is the US at risk of a depression? Reuters
Morgan Stanley: global recession is now the base case: Bloomberg
Amazon to add 100,000 workers amid surge in online ordering: WSJ
Reported coronavirus infections understate actual data, study shows: NY Times
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index collapsed in the March update: ZEW
NY Fed Mfg Index falls sharply in March, reflecting contractio in sector: NY Fed
US stock mkt (S&P 500) drawdow approaches -30% after Monday’s sharp slide:

Nowhere To Hide Last Week

The coronavirus blowback that’s roiling the world cut into every facet of the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds. Another challenging week awaits, as sharp losses in overseas markets and US futures trading (ahead of New York’s open for stocks) on Monday suggest.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 16 March 2020

Fed announces rate cut to near zero: WSJ
Central banks announce emergency policy measures: Reuters
US stock futures drop sharply on Monday, hitting “limit down”: CNBC
Goldman Sachs Predicts US GDP will drop 5% in Q2: Bloomberg
America confronts shutdown: CNN
Biden and Sanders debate with coronavirus as backdrop: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index fell in March “due to… coronavirus” UoM
10yr Treasury yield falling again on Monday as risk-off trade accelerates:

Book Bits | 14 March 2020

● Pharma: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America
By Gerald Posner
Review via The Intercept
As the new coronavirus spreads illness, death, and catastrophe around the world, virtually no economic sector has been spared from harm. Yet amid the mayhem from the global pandemic, one industry is not only surviving, it is profiting handsomely.
“Pharmaceutical companies view Covid-19 as a once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity,” said Gerald Posner, author of “Pharma: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America.” The world needs pharmaceutical products, of course. For the new coronavirus outbreak, in particular, we need treatments and vaccines and, in the U.S., tests. Dozens of companies are now vying to make them.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 13 March 2020

Coronavirus infections spread near and far: Reuters
US launches airstrikes on Iranian-backed militia sites in Iraq: CNN
Global recession risk rising, economists advise: WSJ
What would a US recession look like this time? NY Times
US stock market is at risk of worst week in history after Friday’s trading: MW
Coronavirus fears drive world interest rates toward zero: Bloomberg
US producer prices in Feb fell the most in five years: CNBC
US jobless claims remain low, but coronavirus blowback lurks ahead: MW
US stock market (S&P 500) on Thursday fell to lowest level since Dec 2018: