Countries focus on China’s initial handling of coronavirus crisis: CNN
China will take “all necessary measures” to new US restrictions on Huawei: AP
Iran warns US against intercepting oil shipment to Venezuela: AP
Fed’s Powell: US economy could fall 30% in second quarter: CNBC
Full economic recovery will require a vaccine, says Fed’s Powell: CNBC
Japan is first major economy to report 2 straight quarterly GDP declines: NYT
US Covid-19 deaths fell on Sun (May 17), close to 7-week low: Johns Hopkins
Industrial output in US declined 11.2% in April — biggest drop on record: MW
US retail spending fell a stunning 16.4% in April: AP

● The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class
Joel Kotkin
Summary via publisher (Encounter Books)
Following a remarkable epoch of greater dispersion of wealth and opportunity, we are inexorably returning towards a more feudal era marked by greater concentration of wealth and property, reduced upward mobility, demographic stagnation, and increased dogmatism. If the last seventy years saw a massive expansion of the middle class, not only in America but in much of the developed world, today that class is declining and a new, more hierarchical society is emerging.
The new class structure resembles that of Medieval times. At the apex of the new order are two classes—a reborn clerical elite, the clerisy, which dominates the upper part of the professional ranks, universities, media and culture, and a new aristocracy led by tech oligarchs with unprecedented wealth and growing control of information. These two classes correspond to the old French First and Second Estates.
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The US economy is on track to suffer a heavy blow from the coronavirus crisis in the second quarter, according to several GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. A hint of the macro loss was previewed in the Q1 data, which reflected 4.8% decline. But new estimates for Q2 point to a far bigger contraction unfolding in this quarter.

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House to vote on $3 trillion coronavirus aid package: CNN
World Trade Organization chief quits: NY Times
Slow recovery for China’s economy is a warning to world: Bloomberg
No visibility on when US will reopen to international travelers: Reuters
German economy fell in Q1–biggest decline since financial crisis: CNBC
Record drop for US retail sales expected in today’s April report: CNBC
US jobless claims surged 2.6 million last week due to coronavirus shutdowns: MW
Crude oil, after dramatic fall, recovers to highest level since April 3:

The economic and financial shocks unleashed by the global coronavirus crisis have reordered risk profiles for markets in unexpected as well as expected ways. One of the shifts that should surprise no student of market history: the recent rise (and in some cases dramatic spikes) in return correlations.

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WHO official: the coronavirus may never go away: MW
GOP isn’t ready to OK more coronavirus aid: AP
Will a 2nd coronavirus wave convince Fed to use use negative rates? CNBC
Economists expect US unemployment rate to rise to 17% in June: WSJ
Today’s jobless claims report: another huge increase expected: MW
Fed’s Powell dismisses negative rates as policy tool: CNBC
Lloyd’s of London: coronavirus payout claims will be biggest since 9/11: BBC
Wholesale inflation’s annual trend goes negative in April: MW

The rallies have faded, but by holding on to monster gains posted earlier this year the long Treasuries segment remains far ahead of the rest of US bond market so far this year, based on a set of exchange traded funds through Tuesday’s close (May 12).

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House Democrats unveil new $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill: ABC
High stakes for reopening US economy: Politico
New tax breaks starting to flow to US businesses: WSJ
Fauci, speaking to Congress, urges caution on vaccine expectations: CNBC
US Afghanistan peace deal with Taliban dealt another blow after attacks: CNN
Grocery prices in US post highest monthly increase since 1974: Miami Herald
UK economy contracted nearly 6% in March: Bloomberg
US job losses may be slowing: NY Times
US consumer inflation 1-year trend slowed sharply in April: MW

We’re all desperate for a quick economic recovery, but desperation can be the enemy of informed thinking for looking ahead. As an example, consider recent commentary in some corners that a V-shaped economic recovery (a strong, quick bounce-back) for the US is likely because that’s the usual path, based on reviewing the history of gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity. This spin on macro history looks encouraging, but assuming GDP is last word on economic recoveries is assuming too much.

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Fauci today will warn Senate of risks to early economic opening: NY Times
Biggest US mall owner plans to open 50% of properities by the weekend: CNBC
US auto workers return to jobs amid worries of second virus wave: Reuters
Fed to start buying corporate bond ETFs today: Bloomberg
US consumer inflation expected to fall for second month in today’s update: WSJ
V-shaped recovery unlikely for China, data suggest: WSJ
China’s factory deflation deepened in April: Reuters
S&P 500 volatility (VIX Index) closed at 11-week low yesterday (May 11):