A broad measure of commodities continued to catch a bid last week. For a second week in a row, commodities rallied, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through Friday, May 8.
Continue reading →

White House talks to Congress on new coronavirus relief legislation: Reuters
New infections in Wuhan raise concerns of a rebound in epicenter: Reuters
Minneapolis Fed President: “worst is yet to come on the job front”: BBG
Signs of permanent economic coronavirus damage in US begin to emerge: WSJ
How quickly will the US economy recovery from Covid-19 crisis? NY Times
US Covid-19 daily change in deaths fell to 6-week low on Sun (May 10): JHU
Study points to a new Covid-19 treatment that quickens recovery: NY Times
US job losses in April: fastest decline on record: ECRI

● Ultimate Price: The Value We Place on Life
Howard Steven Friedman
Summary via publisher (U. of California Press)
How much is a human life worth? Individuals, families, companies, and governments routinely place a price on human life. The calculations that underlie these price tags are often buried in technical language, yet they influence our economy, laws, behaviors, policies, health, and safety. These price tags are often unfair, infused as they are with gender, racial, national, and cultural biases that often result in valuing the lives of the young more than the old, the rich more than the poor, whites more than blacks, Americans more than foreigners, and relatives more than strangers. This is critical since undervalued lives are left less-protected and more exposed to risk.
Continue reading →

The US economy is suffering its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and on some fronts the recession is the deepest on record. The obvious question: When will it end? No one knows because the uncertainty is high on how this unprecedented crisis unfolds in the weeks and months ahead. The next-best estimate is looking for a peak in the recession’s intensity and on that front yesterday’s update of the Philadelphia Fed’s ADS Index – a real-time business-cycle index for the US economy – offers a hopeful but still-precarious hint that the apex has passed. [Note: revised data released since this article was published dramatically reversed the upbeat revision history of the ADS Index, as detailed below.]

Continue reading →

Massive job losses expected in today’s payrolls report for April: Reuters
US and China officials say trade deal still on track: CNBC
Justice Dept drops case against Flynn, Trump’s first nat’s security adviser: AP
Senate fails to override Trump’s veto of a War Powers resolution: CNN
UN: coronavirus could trigger ‘famines of biblical proportions’: USA Today
The ‘sharing economy’ takes a heavy hit from the coronavirus: NY Times
Jobs cuts surged in April to highest on record: CG&C
US jobless claims continue to rise by the millions: MW

Inflation-adjusted interest rates in the US have been negative before, but the dip below zero this time is different vs. recent decades: the slide is accompanied by a global economic collapse that may or may not be temporary.

Continue reading →

Chinese and US trade reps expected to speak as soon as next week: BBG
Influential business cycle analyst: US recession will be over by Dec: MW
Surge in US jobless claims may peak this month: WSJ
Bank of England: UK economy will contract 30% in first half of 2020: FT
Industrial production in Germany and France fell dramatically in March: BBG
China’s services PMI signals “steep decline” for sector in Q2: IHS Markit
Small businesses are finding that converting loans to grants is complicated: NYT
US companies shed a stunning 20 million-plus jobs in April: ADP
PMI survey data suggests global economy declined 4% in April: IHS Markit

Sentiment in the US equity market continues to look on the bright side. Despite dismal economic numbers, which are set to become even grimmer, the collective wisdom of investors appears to be betting on a strong rebound in the near future.

Continue reading →

Trump plans to wind down coronavirus task force: Reuters
Coronavirus recession fallout is spreading across corporate America: CNN
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg admitted to the hospital on Tuesday: WSJ
Today’s ADP Employment Report for April forecast: 20 million US jobs lost
Eurozone fell into a deep recession in April, PMI data shows: IHS Markit
Trade deficit for US increased the most in more than a year in March: Reuters
US services sector took a sharp dive into recession in April: ISM
Sentiment in the agricultural industry decline dramatically in April: Purdue
PMI survey data suggests US recession will deepen sharply in Q2: IHS Markit

The stakes have been high this year for choosing certain equity factors over others, as year-to-date results remind. Depending on your preference, 2020 has delivered mild losses so far—or deep declines, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

Continue reading →