Fauci is cautious on outlook for Covid-19 vaccine: MW
Atlanta Fed chief: economic rebound leveling off in some regions: Bloomberg
White House releases list of companies that received bailout loans: CNBC
Supreme Court rules that states can punish Electoral College voters: CNN
OECD projects jobless rate to rise to highest since Great Depression: WSJ
Big Tech in Hong Kong stops processing gov’t requests for data: NY Times
German industrial output rebounded in May: Reuters
ISM Non-Mfg Index rises sharply for June, posting solid gain: ISM
US sentiment-based GDP proxy shows strong rebound in June vs. May: IHS Markit

After three weeks of losses, real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US bounced last week, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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China’s revival outlook spurs rise in global stock to four-week high: Reuters
Texas and Florida report ‘exponential’ growth in Covid-19 cases: CNBC
V recovery for world economy appears unlikely in 2020’s second half: BBG
US crude output falling at fastest rate on record: WSJ
Eurozone retail sales rebounded sharply in May: ING
German factor orders rebounded in May after three months of decline: BBG
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire buys Dominion Energy natural gas assets: CNBC
One case of bubonic plague diagnosed in China’s Inner Mongolia: BBC
China’s dominance in medical supplies will likely persist: NY Times
US stock market’s forward price-earnings ratio rises to 10-year high: JPM

● The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win
Maria Konnikova
Review via Nature
There has never been a more pressing need for digestible and coherent literature on rational decision-making. Enter The Biggest Bluff, psychologist Maria Konnikova’s depiction of her journey into professional poker. What at first seems a light-hearted story about a curious academic dipping her toe into shark-infested waters delivers a crucial lesson in how to thrive in an increasingly misleading world.
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Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk in Real Time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions
Roberto A. De Santis (European Central Bank)
July 2020
We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables serve policymakers in providing timely warnings about the severity of the crisis and the macroeconomic risk involved, because downside risks increase as financial stress and corporate spreads become tighter. We use quantile regression and the skewed t-distribution and evaluate the forecasting properties of models using out-of-sample metrics with real-time vintages.
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US coronavirus cases top 55,000–a new daily record high: WaPo
COVID-19 vaccine candidates set for late-stage clinical studies in July: Reuters
Texas governor issues statewide order to wear masks: CNBC
US and allies focus on punishing China for new Hong Kong security law: NPR
CBO expects US jobless rate will remain 10%-plus through 2020: WSJ
Caixin China General Services PMI rose to 10-year high in June: MW
Eurozone Composite PMI rebounded for second month in June: IHS Markit
US factory orders rebounded in May: Reuters
Pace of US jobless claims continue to slow but remain unusually high: MW
After record loss, US payrolls continued to rebound in June: CNBC

The long-term risk premia projection for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up again in June, rising to 4.6%. This annualized estimate for GMI reflects the long-run forecast over the “risk-free” rate, based on a risk-centered model outlined by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below).
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Daily increase in US coronavirus cases sets record of 50,000-plus: WSJ
Trump, in a change of message, says: I’m “all for masks”: BBC
China’s new security law for Hong Kong takes a bite out of free speech: Vox
Hundreds arrested in Hong Kong for breaching the new security law: CNBC
Russian voters approve law to let Putin to stay in power through 2036: CNN
Will June’s expected surge in US hiring persist in the months ahead? AP
Two firms report encouraging data for experimental Covid-19 vaccines: STAT
Fed minutes: economy still needs ‘highly accommodative’ policy: CNBC
Global mfg activity recovered most of recent losses in June: IHS Markit
US mfg activity expanded in June, rebounding from sharp decline: ISM
US companies hired nearly 2.4 million workers in June via ADP data: CNBC

Emerging-market equities rose sharply in June, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes last month. Overall, higher prices prevailed in risk assets. The lone exception: a mild dip for high-yield bonds in the US.
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