In this issue:
- Mixed results for asset classes as interest rates continue to rise
- Global strategy benchmarks recover… slightly
Monthly Archives: March 2021
The Fed’s Great Experiment Now In Progress
It’s not often that the head the world’s most important central bank recognizes that inflation is heating up while promising not to do much about it anytime soon. But that’s yesterday’s message from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who reaffirmed a policy of keeping interest rates lower for longer even as inflation expectations rebound.
Macro Briefing: 5 March 2021
* Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus relief bill set for Senate vote this weekend
* Crisis threatens on US southern border amid spike in migrant crossings
* UN Security Council to meet as Myanmar crisis continues
* China set to gut remaining vestiges of Hong Kong’s democracy
* China sets goal for 6% economic growth in 2021
* Commodities supplies at risk of nationalizing in natural-resource-rich nations
* Italy blocks exports of vaccines to Australia
* Fed’s Powell says “we’ll see inflation move up”
* Fed’s Powell reaffirms support for easy money policies
* 10-year Treasury yield rises above 1.5% again after Fed chairman’s comments
* Factory orders in US rose more than expected in January
* US jobless claims continued to surge last week:
US Economic Growth Estimates For Q1 Rise Sharply
New US GDP estimates for the first quarter point to a strong acceleration in growth over last year’s Q4 increase, based on a set of recent nowcasts. Survey data tracking economic expectations also point to a ramp-up in projected output for the Q1 GDP report that’s scheduled for release next month.
Macro Briefing: 4 March 2021
* House cancels Thursday session due to possible militia attack
* Will Congress provide relief for city budgets squeezed by pandemic?
* Analysts expect OPEC to reverse oil production cuts
* Global growth accelerated in February, rising to four-month high
* US businesses optimistic on economy, Fed Beige Book reports
* US Composite PMI (GDP proxy) rose to seven-year high in February
* US services sector growth eases to slowest pace May via ISM data, but…
* Services PMI (via IHS Markit) shows a much stronger profile for February
* US employment growth slowed more than expected in February via ADP data:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 3 March 2021
In this issue:
- Reflation trade continues to pound Treasuries
- Will the small-cap edge persist?
- Value stocks are trying for a comeback
Everyone’s Talking Bubbles. Is It Time To Act?
A leading Chinese financial official is doing it. Market columnists in the US are doing it too. Perhaps the only question left: Who’s not chattering, worrying and otherwise obsessing over market bubbles these days?
Macro Briefing: 3 March 2021
* Biden says US to offer all adults vaccines by end of of May
* Rockets hit airbase in Iraq hosting US troops
* Texas governor lifts mask mandate, allows full reopening for businesses
* Lifting pandemic restrictions is still risky, say health experts
* Myanmar security forces shoot 9 protesters
* US GDP growth in Q1 expected to accelerate
* China’s economic rebound slowed to 10-month low in February
* Eurozone economy continued to contract in February
* Contraction in UK services sector slowed in February
* Five-year Treasury inflation forecast rises to 2.43%, a 10-year high:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 March 2021
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher last month, although it remains well below the trailing realized performance for the benchmark. Nonetheless, GMI’s projected 5.6% annualized return for the index over the “risk-free” rate is above the previous estimate and the year-earlier forecast.
Macro Briefing: 2 March 2021
* CDC warns of “potential fourth surge of cases” in the US
* Sen. Elizabeth Warren unveils proposal for wealth tax on ‘ultra-millionaires’
* China closes a major bitcoin mining operation
* German retail sales fell sharply in January due to coronavirus lockdown
* US states lose far less tax revenue than expected due to coronavirus
* Global manufacturing activity rebounded to three-year high in February
* Wall Street is increasingly worried about stock market optimism
* Regional bank stocks are benefitting from higher interest rates
* US construction spending rose again in January, reaching another record high
* US manufacturing output in Feb grew at fastest pace since pandemic started:
