The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May, edging up to an annualized 7.2% from the 7.0% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is slightly below GMI’s realized 10-year performance. The forecast is calculated as the average of three models (defined below) for GMI, an unmanaged global benchmark that’s based on a market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes (excluding cash).
Daily Archives: June 3, 2025
Macro Briefing: 3 June 2025
US manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in May, based on survey data. The ISM Manufacturing Index edged lower last month to a six-month low of 48.5, moderately below the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. “The outlook for the manufacturing sector looks downbeat, particularly with the initial surge in demand from front-loading now behind us,” said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. “Businesses are contending with higher input costs, supply disruptions, and domestic and foreign customers wary of committing to new orders.”
