The market premium for the US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged in May vs. a “fair value” estimate. As the 10-year yield continued to trade in a tight range last month, combined with virtually no change an model-based assessment of its fair value, today’s update for May is in line with the previous month’s analysis.
Daily Archives: June 12, 2025
Macro Briefing: 12 June 2025
US consumer inflation remains muted in May as headline CPI’s year-over-year change ticked down to 2.4%. Core CPI, a more robust measure of the trend, held steady, which could be a sign that pricing pressure will remain “sticky” at a time when tariffs are only just starting to factor into prices. “It was a very good report,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “Basically, it says inflation has finally gotten back to the Federal Reserve’s annual inflation target.” He added: “I think it’s the calm before the inflation storm. This [report] still reflects the disinflation that began a few years ago and continued on through the month of May.”
