Concerns about the US economy persist, but if there’s a slowdown brewing it’s unlikely to show up in the second-quarter GDP report. Revised nowcasts for the government’s Q2 report (due on July 30) continue to indicate a robust recovery following Q1’s slight contraction.

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US retail sales fell the most in four months in May, dropping more than expected. “Tariff announcements have had a clear impact on the timing of large-ticket purchases, notably autos, but there are few signs yet that tariffs are leading to a general pullback in consumer spending,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist at Oxford Economics. “We expect a more marked slowdown to take hold in the second half of the year, as tariffs begin to weigh on real disposable incomes.”

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