The potential for a wider Middle East war has been lurking ever since Israel first attacked Iran more than a week ago. The risk may have increased after the US strike on Iran over the weekend. But markets continue to shrug off the threat of a wider conflagration. A key factor for the path ahead could be a direct function of how or if Iran responds.
Daily Archives: June 23, 2025
Macro Briefing: 23 June 2025
Israel and Iran continued to exchange missile attacks on Monday as Iran asks Russia for more support following the US strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, markets are on edge as investors consider how or if Iran may respond. A key vulnerability for the world economy is the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, a chokepoint through which roughly a third of global oil exports flow. At the moment, the price of crude oil (a proxy for risk sentiment re: Iran) is mostly steady, trading around the $77 mark for Brent. “Traders are holding their breath, waiting to see if Israel or Iran expand this conflict beyond military and political targets into traded energy,” said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and a former White House energy official. “So far, no one has pulled that trigger — and if they don’t, I can see the price reversing.”
