The Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see approach for monetary policy is starting to crack, or so markets are indicating. The central bank is still expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting in July, but confidence for a no-change decision has slipped recently while the estimated probability for a cut in September has increased.
Daily Archives: June 27, 2025
Macro Briefing: 27 June 2025
US initial jobless claims pulled back last week as continuing claims continued rising. The number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance on a recurring basis rose to the highest level in 3-1/2 years — a possible warning sign for the labor market. “The data are consistent with softening of labor market conditions, particularly on the hiring side of the labor market equation,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “For now, we don’t think the labor market is weak enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates before December, but the risk is increasing that once the Fed starts to lower rates, it will have some catching up to do.”
