Daily Archives: March 25, 2026

Rate Cuts on Ice as Inflation Expectations Surge at the Short End

Inflation worries have convinced markets that the odds are low for a cut in interest rates this year by the Federal Reserve. Rate hikes are still considered unlikely, but the possibility is back on the table, if only on the margins. The change in sentiment, courtesy of the war in Iran, which has sent energy prices soaring, is weighing on the bond market. The hope is that the conflict will soon end, allowing Middle East oil and gas exports to resume, and thereby tame inflation worries.

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