Macro Briefing: 23 September 2025

US economic activity strengthened in August, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Although output remained below trend, the monthly reading picked up to the strongest reading since March.

The OECD raised its forecast for global growth this year to 3.2%, up from 2.9% expansion in its June forecast. “Global growth was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging-market economies,” the organization said in a new report. But…

The OECD also warned that tariff-related inflation for the US was still lurking. “The full effects of these tariffs will become clearer as firms run down the inventories that were built up in response to tariff announcements and as the higher tariff rates continue to be implemented,” OECD head Mathias Cormann said at a news conference.

President Donald Trump’s appointee to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors on Monday said US interest rates should be much lower. “I believe the appropriate [federal] funds rate” — the rate the Fed targets — is in the mid-2 percent area, almost 2 percentage points lower than current policy,” he advised in a speech.

Gold hits another record high, supported in part by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue lowering interest rates. Lower yields for bonds reduces competition for the precious metal, a zero-yield asset.

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