The consensus outlook is still projecting that the Federal Reserve will trim its target interest rate by the end of the year. But as economic growth endures and energy prices rise, market sentiment is pricing in fewer cuts. Meanwhile, some analysts are now saying the quiet part out loud: there may no rate cuts in 2024.
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Macro Briefing: 8 April 2024
* Expectations for rate cuts in 2024 continue to fade
* US and China to hold financial shock exercises, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* Oil-price rise is main threat to US economy, warns Moody’s economist
* Global pushback rising against China’s heavily subsidized factory sector
* US offers TSMC up to $6.6 billion for Arizona chip factories
* Gold trades at new record high ahead of US inflation report on Wednesday
* US nonfarm payrolls trend growth strengthens in March:
Book Bits: 6 April 2024
● The Investor’s Dilemma Decoded: Recognize Misinformation, Filter the Noise, and Reach Your Goals
Roger D. Silk and Katherine A. Silk
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Few aspects of life are as important as personal finance, as subject to your control, and as suffused with misinformation, noise, and confusion. Now, authors Dr. Roger D. Silk and Katherine A. Silk cut through that confusion and share with you the fruits of their knowledge and experience developed over the last 43 years. After completing a Ph.D. at Stanford where he studied at the cutting edge of finance theory, Dr. Silk’s experience includes managing billions of dollars at the World Bank and running a family office for one of the nation’s wealthiest families. For the last 26 years as CEO of the nation’s leading firm which advises high net worth individuals on financial and other aspects of their philanthropy, Dr. Silk has worked with countless individual investors and financial professionals. Katherine Silk, who holds a master’s in history from Stanford, adds a valuable and often-missing historical perspective.
US Q1 GDP Nowcast Highlights Growth Slowdown Persisting
US economic output is still on a path for a materially softer pace of growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release at the end of this month. The expansion will be strong enough to minimize recession risk, but the deceleration in the trend via GDP data will remain conspicuous for a second straight quarterly update.
Macro Briefing: 5 April 2024
* Treasury Sec. Yellen in China focusing on flood of cheap goods
* No rate cuts this year is a possibility, says Fed’s Kashkari, but…
* Goldman Sachs’ chief economist says no cuts in 2024 would be “very surprising”
* Global economic activity strengthens in March via PMI survey data
* US jobless claims climb to 2-month high but continue to forecast rising payrolls:
Commodities Continue To Lead Major Asset Classes In 2024
In mid-December, CapitalSpectator.com mused: “Are Commodities A Compelling Contrarian Trade For 2024?” The answer so far this year continues to be “yes,” as a rally for prices of raw materials continues to bubble after a rough 2023 in this corner of global markets.
Macro Briefing: 4 April 2024
* US Treasury Sec. Yellen says US may consider new tariffs on China
* Atlanta Fed’s Bostic now sees only one rate cut this year
* Global economic recovery is driving a strong commodities rally in 2024
* Eurozone economic activity begins to recover via PMI survey data
* US services sector growth slows further in March via ISM Services Index, and…
* ISM Services data also indicate price pressures are easing
* US private-sector hiring improves for second month in March: ADP
New Questions Emerge On Prospects For A June Rate Cut
Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after Monday’s relatively firm manufacturing-survey data for March. Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road.
Macro Briefing: 3 April 2024
* Taiwan hit by strongest earthquake in 25 years
* Fed officials still expect rate cuts, but not anytime soon
* Global manufacturing growth strengthens in March via PMI survey
* China manufacturing growth posts strongest pace in 13 months: PMI survey
* Eurozone inflation unexpectedly cools to 2.4% in March
* Tesla’s sales fall, a sign that’s its share of EV market is slipping
* US factory orders rebound sharply in February after two monthly declines
* US job openings edge higher, staying in relatively elevated terrain:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 April 2024
The long-run performance estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up again in March vs. the previous month. Today’s revised forecast (based on three models defined below) indicates a 6.9% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which holds all the major asset classes (except cash), according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.