China’s stock market is enjoying a banner year in 2020, partly due to a surge in prices in recent days. Using a set of US exchange-listed funds as proxies for the world’s major equity regions also shows that Chinese shares have pulled far ahead of the rest of the field, based on the close of trading for Tuesday, July 7.

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WHO warns of ’emerging evidence’ of airborne transmission of coronavirus: CNN
New US coronavirus cases reach 60,000 for July 7–a record high: WSJ
Dr. Fauci warns against ‘false complacency’ re: low Covid-19 death rate: NW
FBI chief says China’s cyberattacks on US are ‘breathtaking’: CNBC
China is ‘happy’ to join arms control talks with US and Russia: Reuters
Gold reaches $1800 an ounce–highest since 2011: CNN
Has the long-short equity strategy concept hit a wall? Bloomberg
US job opening rose in May, surprising economists: Bloomberg

The US economy is growing again. The growth to date is largely due to the snap-back effect that followed a sudden, sharp decline in output, but recent data clearly show that the coronavirus recession has bottomed and a recovery is unfolding. The mystery is whether the recovery will persist. The primary reason for the mystery, of course, is the uncertainty linked to Covid-19.

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Fauci is cautious on outlook for Covid-19 vaccine: MW
Atlanta Fed chief: economic rebound leveling off in some regions: Bloomberg
White House releases list of companies that received bailout loans: CNBC
Supreme Court rules that states can punish Electoral College voters: CNN
OECD projects jobless rate to rise to highest since Great Depression: WSJ
Big Tech in Hong Kong stops processing gov’t requests for data: NY Times
German industrial output rebounded in May: Reuters
ISM Non-Mfg Index rises sharply for June, posting solid gain: ISM
US sentiment-based GDP proxy shows strong rebound in June vs. May: IHS Markit

After three weeks of losses, real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US bounced last week, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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China’s revival outlook spurs rise in global stock to four-week high: Reuters
Texas and Florida report ‘exponential’ growth in Covid-19 cases: CNBC
V recovery for world economy appears unlikely in 2020’s second half: BBG
US crude output falling at fastest rate on record: WSJ
Eurozone retail sales rebounded sharply in May: ING
German factor orders rebounded in May after three months of decline: BBG
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire buys Dominion Energy natural gas assets: CNBC
One case of bubonic plague diagnosed in China’s Inner Mongolia: BBC
China’s dominance in medical supplies will likely persist: NY Times
US stock market’s forward price-earnings ratio rises to 10-year high: JPM

● The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win
Maria Konnikova
Review via Nature
There has never been a more pressing need for digestible and coherent literature on rational decision-making. Enter The Biggest Bluff, psychologist Maria Konnikova’s depiction of her journey into professional poker. What at first seems a light-hearted story about a curious academic dipping her toe into shark-infested waters delivers a crucial lesson in how to thrive in an increasingly misleading world.
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Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk in Real Time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions
Roberto A. De Santis (European Central Bank)
July 2020
We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables serve policymakers in providing timely warnings about the severity of the crisis and the macroeconomic risk involved, because downside risks increase as financial stress and corporate spreads become tighter. We use quantile regression and the skewed t-distribution and evaluate the forecasting properties of models using out-of-sample metrics with real-time vintages.
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US coronavirus cases top 55,000–a new daily record high: WaPo
COVID-19 vaccine candidates set for late-stage clinical studies in July: Reuters
Texas governor issues statewide order to wear masks: CNBC
US and allies focus on punishing China for new Hong Kong security law: NPR
CBO expects US jobless rate will remain 10%-plus through 2020: WSJ
Caixin China General Services PMI rose to 10-year high in June: MW
Eurozone Composite PMI rebounded for second month in June: IHS Markit
US factory orders rebounded in May: Reuters
Pace of US jobless claims continue to slow but remain unusually high: MW
After record loss, US payrolls continued to rebound in June: CNBC