Category Archives: Uncategorized

Book Bits | 7 September 2019

The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society
By Binyamin Appelbaum
Review via Reuters
What is it about “free markets”? The phrase creates a frisson of excitement among a certain group of people. In “The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society”, Binyamin Appelbaum describes what happened when these intellectual fanatics were given the power to act on their ideas. It is not a happy tale.
Like most foolish notions about human society, the basic belief in free markets is simple, appealing and deeply wrong. It’s simple to think that all will be well if governments just leave competitive markets alone. It’s also appealing: There’s no need to plan or judge if price signals provided by the self-regulating market do all the economic work. And it’s wrong: Neither human nature nor the modern economy works the way these economists assume. Appelbaum’s narrative provides ample evidence of that.
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US Companies Hired Fewer-Than-Expected Workers In August

Private payrolls rose 96,000 in August, moderately below expectations, according to this morning’s update from the Labor Dept. The soft gain fans worries anew that the recent slowdown in the economy will bring a recession at some point in the near future. The one-year trend still ranks as healthy growth, but the downside bias looks is starting to look worrisome.

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Macro Briefing | 6 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian is pounding North Carolina: CNN
China and US set to meet in October for trade negotiations: CNBC
Slower US job growth expected in today’s update from Labor Dept: Reuters
Global growth slowed in August, near 3-year low: IHS Markit
German industrial output continued to fall in July: Bloomberg
US factory orders rose for second month in July: MW
ISM Non-Mfg Index accelerated to moderately strong pace in August: Bloomberg
US Services PMI slowed to a crawl in August: CNBC
US private payrolls rose 195k in August, best pace in 4 months: ADP

The Fed’s Between The Rock And The Hard Place

Yesterday’s release of the Beige Book survey from the Federal Reserve paints an upbeat profile, advising that the “the economy expanded at a modest pace through the end of August.” But gathering storm clouds suggest that the rest of the year could bring rougher seas, raising doubts about how the central bank will navigate a slowing economy.

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Macro Briefing | 5 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian threatens the Carolinas: CNN
US and China schedule trade talks for early October: WSJ
A new recession warning for Germany: factor orders fell in July: Bloomberg
UK Parliament blocks no-deal Brexit: Vox
Is Hong Kong leader’s concession enough to end protests? Vox
Fed’s Beige Book report offers upbeat profile of US economy: MW
US trade deficit narrowed slightly in July: Reuters
GDPNow model trims US GDP growth for Q3 to sluggish +1.5%: Atlanta Fed
Today’s ADP estimate of US payrolls for Aug expected to post 1.7% annual gain:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 September 2019

The Global Market Index’s risk premium dipped to an annualized 4.6% in today’s revised outlook, based on data through August. The projection markets a modest decline from last month’s analysis. GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The forecast for this passive benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the expected “risk-free” rate for the long term.

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Macro Briefing | 4 Sep 2019

After bashing Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian now lashing Florida’s coast: Reuters
Hong Kong leader to withdraw bill that led to protests: WSJ
UK’s Brexit mess headed for showdown after Parliament vote: CNBC
Gold expected to continue rising as Fed plans to cut rates: Bloomberg
Global Mfg PMI continues to reflect mild contraction in Aug: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI growth stabilized at slow pace in August: IHS Markit
US construction spending rose in July but 1-year trend still negative: Reuters
US PMI Mfg Index virtually flat in August: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index reflects contraction in August–first decline in 3 years: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing | 3 Sep 2019

After pounding the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian heads to US: CNN
US moves closer to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan: Fox
US-China trade war taking a toll on global economy: WSJ
Goldman Sachs: inflation outside US is accelerating: Bloomberg
Consumer spending in US surged in August: MW
Trade worries weighed on US consumer sentiment in August: Bloomberg
UK mfg activity fell at the fastest pace in seven years in August: Reuters
China’s manufacturing sector contracted for fourth straight month in August: NBS
Eurozone mfg sector continued to contract in August: IHS Markit