Trade-war risk returned with a vengeance on Friday, taking a bite out of global equity markets. Foreign junk bonds, on the other hand, enjoyed a strong rally, posting last week’s strongest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing | 26 August 2019
Trump predicts US and China will find path to trade deal: Reuters
China calls Trump’s escalation of trade war a ‘strategic mistake’: SCMP
US and Japan agree in principle to trade deal: Bloomberg
How will US companies deal with uncertainty from Trump’s trade war? Reuters
NY Fed Q3 GDP nowcast: +1.8%, modestly below Q2’s +2.1%: NY Fed
New US home sales fell in July but June data revised sharply higher: Bloomberg
Book Bits | 24 August 2019
By Lawrence B. Glickman
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
Throughout the twentieth century, “free enterprise” has been a contested keyword in American politics, and the cornerstone of a conservative philosophy that seeks to limit government involvement into economic matters. Lawrence B. Glickman shows how the idea first gained traction in American discourse and was championed by opponents of the New Deal. Those politicians, believing free enterprise to be a fundamental American value, held it up as an antidote to a liberalism that they maintained would lead toward totalitarian statism. Tracing the use of the concept of free enterprise, Glickman shows how it has both constrained and transformed political dialogue. He presents a fascinating look into the complex history, and marketing, of an idea that forms the linchpin of the contemporary opposition to government regulation, taxation, and programs such as Medicare.
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Will Consumers And Services Keep The US Out Of Recession?
The manufacturing sector continues to be a drag on economic growth in the US and around the world. Consumer spending and the services sector have been counterweights. But new survey data for August suggests that services may be vulnerable. Weakness in manufacturing and services appears to be creating the biggest threat to the economy since the expansion started ten years ago.
Macro Briefing | 23 August 2019
Fed Chairman Powell’s speech today will be widely analyzed: Reuters
Manufacturing activity continues to soften around the world: WSJ
Will G7 nations unite to combat slowing global growth? Bloomberg
Is the Trump administration planning a new tax cut? WSJ
US Leading Economic Index rose 0.5% in July: CB
US labor market still on track for growth via jobless claims: CNBC
US growth weakens to a crawl in Aug via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
Deep-Value ETF Report: Biggest Discounts In Commodities, Energy
The evolution of Mr. Market’s discounting machine unfolds at a glacial pace these days. If you surveyed the ETF landscape a year ago, for instance (as The Capital Spectator did here), and compared it with the latest review (as presented below), you’ll find that a familiar cast of characters populate the lowest realms of discounted pricing: commodities and various slices of energy shares. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose!
Macro Briefing | 22 August 2019
The stakes are high if a US-Eurozone trade war starts: CNBC
What tools are left for policy makers to juice US growth? WSJ
German manufacturers fear country’s slipping into recession: Bloomberg
Japan’s economic growth picked up to 8-month high in Aug: IHS Markit
Group of Seven summit set to end without joint communique: CNBC
Fed minutes show debate over cutting rates more aggressively: Reuters
US existing home sales rose more than expected in July: CNBC
Eurozone PMI: economic growth remains weak in August: IHS Markit
Tech And Real Estate Remain The Red-Hot Equity Sector Leaders
If you’re wondering why certain US equity strategies are outperforming this year, there’s a decent chance that overweighting technology and real estate sectors has been the secret sauce for success. Similarly, relatively weak results are probably linked to decisions to underweight these slices of the US equity market.
Macro Briefing | 21 August 2019
A payroll tax cut is on Trump’s mind: CNBC
Trump cancels trip to Denmark, which says Greenland isn’t for sale: CNN
Trump tells NRA no plans for background checks on guns: WaPo
No sign of Brexit breakthrough between UK and European Union: BBC
China confirms it’s detained a British consulate worker based in Hong Kong: CNN
Russia says it doesn’t have to share data on nuclear accident: ABC
UK budget deficit soars in preparation for Oct 31 Brexit: Bloomberg
US companies repurchase shares at slowest pace in 18 months: WSJ
US commercial & industrial loans: 1yr growth slowed to 9-mo low in July:
US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 August 2019
Recession forecasts have been mounting lately, largely due to inverted yield curves. But a broad read on the hard data has yet to throw in the towel. US economic growth is slow and may get slower in the months ahead, but for the moment the odds still favor expansion for the immediate future.